In this guide
Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of depth and breadth of available contracts. Kalshi stands out as the sole CFTC-approved venue for American participants. Manifold delivers entertaining prediction games using virtual currency at no financial risk. For those based outside the US, Polymarket accessed through PolyGram represents the optimal choice.
Prediction markets have surged in adoption throughout 2024 and into 2025. This guide breaks down how the leading platforms stack up against one another.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | $1.5B+ annual volume. Deepest markets on politics, crypto |
| Markets | 1,000+ active. Politics, crypto, sports, science, culture |
| Fees | 0% house edge. Spread typically 1-3 cents |
| Currency | USDC on Polygon (crypto required) |
| Access | Global (ex US). KYC required |
| Best for | Serious traders with information edge |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi holds the distinction of being America's sole CFTC-authorised prediction platform. It welcomes US-based traders who cannot access Polymarket and has experienced substantial growth. Trade-offs include a narrower selection of available contracts relative to Polymarket, and stringent American regulatory requirements that restrict certain market categories.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates using play-currency ("mana") rather than actual funds. It serves as an excellent venue for honing forecasting abilities and participating in collective prediction efforts — though it lacks genuine financial returns. The platform hosts more than 10,000 user-generated contracts.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus brings together crowd-sourced probabilistic estimates from experienced forecasters. Participants earn no monetary rewards, yet the platform excels at establishing forecast performance metrics and addressing complex international questions. Research institutions regularly reference its predictive performance benchmarks.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair pioneered the betting exchange model and continues to process enormous sums across sporting and electoral contracts annually. Strengths include conventional currency support, FCA authorisation, and substantial sports market depth. Drawbacks encompass 2-5% commission charged on net gains, absence of blockchain-based contracts, and comparatively sparse election forecasting relative to Polymarket.
Our Recommendation for 2025
If you're situated in Europe or elsewhere globally and seek maximum market depth alongside comprehensive contract selection: Polymarket via PolyGram is your answer. PolyGram streamlines the blockchain component whilst preserving full access to Polymarket's complete order books. Start trading on PolyGram →