In this guide
Who Will Win the Next US Election? Prediction Market View
Prediction markets are often more accurate than polls at forecasting election outcomes. Here is what the markets are saying about US elections in 2026 and beyond.
US Midterm Elections 2026
The 2026 US midterm elections will determine control of the House of Representatives and Senate. Historically, the president's party loses seats in midterms. PolyGram offers live markets on:
- Which party controls the House after 2026 midterms?
- Senate majority party post-November 2026
- Individual Senate race outcomes (key swing states)
- Gubernatorial races in major states
How Prediction Markets Price Elections
Each market contract represents a probability. A price of 0.62 means the market assigns a 62% chance to that outcome. These prices aggregate the views of thousands of traders, incorporating polling data, historical precedent, and real-time news.
Why Prediction Markets Beat Traditional Polls
In the 2016, 2020, and 2024 presidential elections, prediction market prices were closer to the final results than most traditional polls. Why?
- Skin in the game: traders risk real money, so they research carefully
- Continuous updating: prices adjust in real time as news breaks
- Aggregation: thousands of independent views combine into one price
- No house bias: unlike bookmakers, market prices reflect pure probability
2028 Presidential Election Odds
While still distant, the 2028 presidential race already has active prediction markets. Early markets on PolyGram reflect uncertainty about both party nominees. Check live prices at polygram.ink.
How to Trade US Election Markets
- Sign up at PolyGram
- Fund your account (minimum $10 in USDC or via fiat on-ramp)
- Search for "US election 2026" in the market browser
- Buy YES or NO contracts at the current market price
- Hold until the event resolves for automatic payout
Risk Warning
Prediction markets involve financial risk. Even well-researched positions can lose value due to unexpected events. Never trade more than you can afford to lose. Past accuracy of markets does not guarantee future performance.
Start trading on PolyGram →