Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Norwegian Nobel Committee will announce the 2026 Peace Prize recipient in October, selecting from global nominees across diplomacy, conflict resolution, human rights advocacy, and institutional peace-building. The committee receives roughly 300 nominations annually but typically narrows focus to a handful of serious contenders by summer. The prize carries substantial symbolic weight in international relations and occasionally signals geopolitical alignment; past awards to Barack Obama (2009) and the European Union (2012) generated controversy over premature recognition, whilst awards to Malala Yousafzai (2014) and Denis Mukwege (2018) reflected established humanitarian impact.

The 9% probability reflects the market's assessment that none of the five named individuals—Trump, Zelenskyy, Netanyahu, Putin, or Musk—will feature among the winners. Historical precedent suggests the committee rarely awards sitting heads of state or active military commanders, making Zelenskyy and Netanyahu less probable despite their prominence in ongoing conflicts. Trump and Putin face reputational barriers; Musk lacks the peace-building or humanitarian credentials the committee typically values. The committee's 2025 award decision, announced in early October 2025, will signal whether the committee is moving toward recognising active conflict participants or maintaining its traditional preference for established NGOs and individual advocates.

Traders should monitor nomination announcements (typically January–February), any major diplomatic breakthroughs in 2025–2026 that elevate new candidates' profiles, and the committee's public statements about its selection criteria. The settlement window closes 10 October 2026, allowing roughly two weeks after the formal announcement for market resolution.

Methodology

We track Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.