Market statistics
- Total volume
- $1.1M
- 24h volume
- $698K
- Liquidity
- $493K
- Open interest
- $544K
Available prediction outcomes (15)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
Bitcoin's price at the noon ET candle close on 6 June 2026 will determine this market's outcome. The resolution hinges on a single minute's closing price on Binance's BTC/USDT pair, making this an extremely narrow technical event rather than a broader directional bet. The specific price threshold is not disclosed in the market description, but the 3% implied probability suggests a price level significantly above Bitcoin's historical range or current expectations.
Historical precedent for such extreme price moves within single-minute windows is limited. Bitcoin has experienced substantial intraday volatility, but reaching prices that command only 3% probability typically requires either major macroeconomic shocks, regulatory announcements, or exchange-specific technical events. The 18-month timeframe to June 2026 provides ample opportunity for market conditions to shift, though the specificity of a single noon candle makes this fundamentally different from longer-duration price predictions.
Traders monitoring this market should track Federal Reserve policy announcements, major cryptocurrency regulation developments, and any Binance platform updates that could affect pricing. Geopolitical events affecting risk sentiment and traditional market volatility historically correlate with Bitcoin movements. The noon ET timestamp falls during US market hours, when institutional trading activity and news flow are typically highest, potentially amplifying price movements. Any scheduled economic data releases or central bank communications on or near 6 June 2026 could prove decisive for extreme price scenarios.
Wikipedia Context
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BitcoinBitcoin is the first decentralized cryptocurrency. Based on a free-market ideology, bitcoin was invented in 2008 when an unknown person published a white paper under the pseudonym of Satoshi Nakamoto. Use of bitcoin as a currency began in 2009, with the release of its open-source implementation. From 2021 to 2025, El Salvador adopted it as legal tender curre
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Bitcoin in El SalvadorEl Salvador was the first country in the world to use bitcoin as legal tender, after it was adopted as such by the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador in 2021. It has been promoted by Nayib Bukele, the president of El Salvador, who claimed that it would improve the economy by making banking easier for Salvadorans, and that it would encourage foreign investme
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History of bitcoinBitcoin is a cryptocurrency, a digital asset that uses cryptography to control its creation and management rather than relying on central authorities. Originally designed as a medium of exchange, Bitcoin is now primarily regarded as a store of value.
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Bitcoin buried in Newport landfillIn 2013, Welsh computer engineer James Howells mistakenly disposed of a laptop hard drive containing the private key for 8,000 Bitcoin in the Docksway landfill in Newport, Wales. Howells subsequently assembled a team of specialists and secured funding to excavate the site, but Newport City Council refused permission, citing the environmental impact of the se
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Bitcoin above 2026 on June 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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