Bitcoin price on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's noon ET price on 31 May 2026 will be determined by the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at that specific timestamp. The market currently shows zero probability assigned to any price outcome, suggesting either insufficient liquidity or an expectation that resolution data may be unavailable. Settlement hinges on Binance's candle data remaining accessible and uninterrupted through the resolution window.

Historical Bitcoin price prediction markets reveal that single-point-in-time snapshots—particularly at arbitrary timestamps like noon ET—carry elevated volatility risk compared to daily close prices. Intraday candle closes are susceptible to thin liquidity moments, flash movements, and regional market microstructure effects. Markets resolving on specific minute-level data have previously encountered disputes over data feed integrity and timezone interpretation, though Binance's standardised candle methodology provides clearer benchmarks than decentralised sources.

Traders monitoring this market should track Bitcoin's macro positioning through 2025–2026, including regulatory developments in major jurisdictions, Federal Reserve policy shifts, and institutional adoption trends. Binance's operational status and API reliability matter directly; any exchange downtime or data feed disruption on 31 May could trigger resolution complications. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects uncertainty about whether sufficient trading interest will sustain the market through to settlement rather than a genuine forecast of price direction.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.