"Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

*Toy Story 5* is opening into a market that is already treating it like a franchise-level event, with trade forecasts clustering around a domestic debut in the $140 million to $150 million range and some chatter stretching higher after strong preview numbers. Variety reported expectations of $145 million to $150 million from about 4,400 North American cinemas, while Deadline later trimmed the domestic projection to $140 million and still described it as the franchise’s best opening and the biggest of 2026 so far.[1][3]

That makes the current **4% YES** price look like a very low bar against the published tracking, but opening-weekend markets can still be sensitive to late changes in walk-up demand, family turnout, and whether premium formats continue to hold up through Saturday and Sunday. The best historical read is that Pixar sequels with broad four-quadrant appeal can clear prior franchise records when reception and access align; *Toy Story 4* opened to $120 million domestically, and *Toy Story 3* reached $110 million, both well below current forecasts for the new film.[1]

The main catalysts to watch are the final Friday, Saturday, and Sunday grosses on The Numbers’ box-office tab, since the market settles only on the eventual 3-day domestic figure rather than studio estimates. Advance screening activity was already part of the setup, with Deadline noting Thursday previews beginning at 2 p.m. in the US and Canada, and tracking reports pointing to a very front-loaded launch if families convert early interest into actual weekend attendance.[3] If weekend play holds near the upper end of trade forecasts, the result is likely to land well above the current implied probability.[1][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Champions League Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.