Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil passes, has experienced significant disruption to shipping traffic since late 2023. Houthi attacks on vessels transiting the waterway, coupled with regional tensions, have forced many shipping lines to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope—a journey adding 10–14 days and substantially higher costs. IMF Portwatch data showed transit calls averaging in the low-to-mid 40s throughout 2024 and into early 2025, well below the pre-disruption baseline of 60+ daily arrivals that characterised normal operations.

Historical precedent suggests recovery to 60+ daily transits requires either a decisive security intervention or a negotiated settlement that demonstrably reduces attack risk. The 2019 tanker attacks prompted temporary shipping reroutes but normalised within weeks once naval presence increased; however, the current campaign has proven more sustained and politically entrenched. Comparable disruptions—such as the Suez Canal blockage in March 2021—took months to fully resolve in shipping patterns, even after the immediate obstruction cleared.

Traders should monitor announcements from the US Navy regarding enhanced escort operations, any ceasefire negotiations involving Houthi groups, or statements from major shipping insurers about corridor risk premiums. Recent reports indicate some container lines are gradually testing the route again, though volumes remain depressed. The 2% probability reflects the structural difficulty of achieving 60+ daily calls within 16 months given no imminent political settlement and persistent security concerns that continue to deter standard transits.

Methodology

We track Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

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Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.