MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by 2025?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Strategy’s Bitcoin policy has been to accumulate rather than sell, and the company’s public disclosures through early 2026 point the same way. Its reported holdings reached 714,644 BTC by 8 February 2026, with an average purchase price of $76,056 per coin, and management has repeatedly tied purchases to equity issuance and other financing rather than asset disposals. That makes the 0% crowd-implied probability understandable: there is no established precedent of a treasury sale, and a sale would be a sharp break from the firm’s stated approach.

The main comparison cases are not sales but stress periods for highly levered Bitcoin holders, where the market has instead watched for forced selling risk, debt refinancing and changes to accounting treatment. Strategy adopted fair-value accounting from 1 January 2025, which has increased earnings volatility, but it also means the balance sheet now shows Bitcoin gains and losses more directly. Recent coverage from Phemex in February 2026 highlighted the scale of the position and the fact that the aggregate purchase price still matters if Bitcoin weakens, while Strategy’s own purchases page continues to show ongoing additions rather than liquidation.

For traders, the catalysts are straightforward: any change in financing conditions, debt covenants, or management guidance on treasury policy. Watch the company’s weekly purchase updates, quarterly results, and any filing that mentions liquidity, capital allocation or a shift away from equity-funded accumulation. A genuine sell trigger would most likely come from regulatory, creditor or balance-sheet pressure rather than routine portfolio management, so absent a major shock, the path to a sale looks narrow.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.