What price will Bitcoin hit on June 13?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price trajectory on 13 June 2026 remains subject to macroeconomic conditions, regulatory announcements, and technical levels established across preceding months. The 1% implied probability reflects either an extremely specific price target or a settlement condition so narrow that historical volatility makes it statistically unlikely. Bitcoin has traded in ranges exceeding 15–20% over single days during periods of institutional repositioning or Federal Reserve communications, yet pinpointing an exact price on a given date without knowing the strike level suggests the market is pricing in either a very high or very low threshold.

Historical precedent from previous Bitcoin halvings and major macro events shows that single-day price movements of 5–10% cluster around central bank policy shifts, spot ETF inflows or outflows, or geopolitical shocks. The period between now and June 2026 encompasses multiple Federal Reserve meetings, potential changes in US administration policy toward digital assets, and ongoing institutional adoption cycles. Comparable low-probability outcomes in crypto markets typically resolve when external black-swan events materialise rather than through gradual price drift.

Traders should monitor regulatory filings from the SEC and CFTC, any major spot or futures ETF approvals or suspensions, and statements from central banks regarding digital currency frameworks. Quarterly earnings reports from major Bitcoin-holding corporations and announcements from mining operations can also shift sentiment sharply. The settlement window closes 14 June, meaning any price movement must occur within a compressed timeframe relative to typical market cycles.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.