Trump out as President before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump remains in the White House with no immediate constitutional crisis threatening his tenure, as the crowd-implied 9% probability reflects the historical rarity of a sitting president resigning or being removed before the end of their term. The market hinges on whether a future impeachment, criminal conviction, or invocation of the 25th Amendment could force him out before December 2026.

Historically, only one president has resigned: Richard Nixon in 1974, following the threat of impeachment over the Watergate scandal. Trump himself was impeached twice—in 2019 and 2021—but acquitted by the Senate in both cases, with votes falling short of the two-thirds threshold required for removal[2][3]. No president has ever been removed via impeachment after conviction, and Trump’s 2024 criminal conviction for falsifying business records occurred after he left office, meaning it does not directly trigger removal under current constitutional provisions[1].

Traders should monitor upcoming Senate impeachment proceedings, any new federal indictments, and potential 25th Amendment challenges, particularly if Trump’s health or legal standing deteriorates. Recent reports indicate Trump and allies are exploring legal strategies to expunge his prior impeachments, which could signal defensive positioning against future removal attempts[4]. The settlement window closes on 31 December 2026, so any announcement of resignation or removal before that date resolves the market to “Yes,” regardless of when the action formally takes effect.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Trump out as President before 2027?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.