NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is the Democratic primary for New York’s 12th Congressional District seat, held on 23 June 2026, to determine who will contest the 2026 midterm election. With current crowd-implied probability at just 1% YES for the named candidate, the market reflects a near-certain expectation that another contender—most likely Micah Lasher, who holds 64% implied probability on Kalshi—will secure the nomination[1]. Historical parallels show that in open-seat House primaries with multiple high-profile candidates, early polling dominance and organisational backing often outweigh name recognition alone; Jack Schlossberg, despite his prominence, has struggled to convert visibility into votes in similar New York contests[3]. Comparable cases from 2022 and 2024 primaries in urban districts reveal that candidates with strong local endorsements and grassroots networks frequently outperform those relying on national media attention[2].

Traders should monitor three key catalysts: final campaign finance disclosures by 15 June, which may reveal funding gaps or surges; any sudden withdrawal or suspension of a top contender, which could shift momentum rapidly; and the official candidate list confirmation from the NYC Board of Elections, expected within days[5]. Recent reporting from Ballotpedia confirms five named candidates are actively competing, including Alex Bores, George Conway, Micah Lasher, and Jack Schlossberg, with no suspensions or injuries reported yet[2]. A critical dependency is the Democratic Party’s internal consensus process, which may favour Lasher due to his established ties with local party leaders[1]. Watch for any announcement of a coalition between minor candidates, which could alter the line significantly before the primary date.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Champions League Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.