Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 3 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-3.5) vs Eternal Fire (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-3.5) vs 1WIN (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-3.5) vs Eternal Fire (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-6.5) vs Eternal Fire (+6.5) | 90% |
| Match Winner | 65% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 61% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map Handicap: 1WIN (-1.5) vs Eternal Fire (+1.5) | 50% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 50% |
| Map 4 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-6.5) vs Eternal Fire (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 4 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-3.5) vs Eternal Fire (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 4 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-3.5) vs 1WIN (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 4 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-6.5) vs 1WIN (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 4 Winner | 38% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-6.5) vs 1WIN (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-3.5) vs 1WIN (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-9.5) vs Eternal Fire (+9.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 10% |
| Map Handicap: EF (-1.5) vs 1WIN (+1.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: EF (-2.5) vs 1WIN (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: 1WIN (-2.5) vs Eternal Fire (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-3.5) vs 1WIN (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-6.5) vs Eternal Fire (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-3.5) vs Eternal Fire (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-6.5) vs 1WIN (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-9.5) vs 1WIN (+9.5) | 0% |
Market context
The European Pro League Series 8 final is a best-of-five between 1WIN and Eternal Fire, and the market is pricing a full 1WIN win. That fits the recent form on the available match pages: 1WIN are listed with a perfect record in the last month, including 2-1 and 2-0 wins in the group stage, while Eternal Fire have also been competitive but with slightly less convincing underlying numbers on the same preview pages.[1][4][7]
Historically, the clearest guide here is that the market has already anchored to 1WIN’s edge in map depth and recent head-to-head. The preview material says 1WIN previously swept Eternal Fire 2-0 in a BO3, and 1WIN’s recent map profile is strongest on Dust2 and Inferno, with a near-total Nuke ban rate suggesting they are unlikely to rely on that map in a long veto.[1][4] For Eternal Fire, the same pages point to a broader but less dominant pool, with Mirage as a more reliable pick and Inferno appearing in their ban pattern, which matters in a BO5 because the veto can stretch weaker maps into play.[2][4]
The main catalysts traders should watch are roster and schedule confirmation, plus any last-minute format or timing changes before the settlement window closes. The listed line-ups on the match pages show 1WIN with Qikert, lattykk, oz1k, reyoz and cronuss, while Eternal Fire are shown with MisteM, br0, regali, Kvem and jottAAA; any change to those five-man cores would materially alter the read on the price.[1] The playoff schedule is set for 16-24 July 2026, so a delay, technical issue, or a rescheduled start beyond seven days would be relevant to settlement under the market rules.[5]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Eternal Fire (BO5) - European Pro League Series 8 Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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