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Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Eternal Fire (BO5) - European Pro League Series 8 Playoffs

How the prediction market is pricing "Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Eternal Fire (BO5) - European Pro League Series 8 Playoffs" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Map 1 Winner 100% Map 3 Winner 100% O/U 3.5 Games 100% Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-3.5) vs Eternal Fire (+3.5) 100% Volume: $276K Liquidity: $349K Closes: 24 Jul 2026
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Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Eternal Fire (BO5) - European Pro League Series 8 Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 1 Winner100%
Map 3 Winner100%
O/U 3.5 Games100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-3.5) vs Eternal Fire (+3.5)100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-3.5) vs 1WIN (+3.5)100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-3.5) vs Eternal Fire (+3.5)90%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-6.5) vs Eternal Fire (+6.5)90%
Match Winner65%
O/U 4.5 Games61%
Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map Handicap: 1WIN (-1.5) vs Eternal Fire (+1.5)50%
Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.550%
Map 4 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-6.5) vs Eternal Fire (+6.5)50%
Map 4 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-3.5) vs Eternal Fire (+3.5)50%
Map 4 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-3.5) vs 1WIN (+3.5)50%
Map 4 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-6.5) vs 1WIN (+6.5)50%
Map 4 Winner38%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.510%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-6.5) vs 1WIN (+6.5)10%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.510%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-3.5) vs 1WIN (+3.5)10%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-9.5) vs Eternal Fire (+9.5)10%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.510%
Map Handicap: EF (-1.5) vs 1WIN (+1.5)1%
Map 2 Winner0%
Map Handicap: EF (-2.5) vs 1WIN (+2.5)0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.50%
Map Handicap: 1WIN (-2.5) vs Eternal Fire (+2.5)0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-3.5) vs 1WIN (+3.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-6.5) vs Eternal Fire (+6.5)0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-3.5) vs Eternal Fire (+3.5)0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-6.5) vs 1WIN (+6.5)0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-9.5) vs 1WIN (+9.5)0%

Market context

The European Pro League Series 8 final is a best-of-five between 1WIN and Eternal Fire, and the market is pricing a full 1WIN win. That fits the recent form on the available match pages: 1WIN are listed with a perfect record in the last month, including 2-1 and 2-0 wins in the group stage, while Eternal Fire have also been competitive but with slightly less convincing underlying numbers on the same preview pages.[1][4][7]

Historically, the clearest guide here is that the market has already anchored to 1WIN’s edge in map depth and recent head-to-head. The preview material says 1WIN previously swept Eternal Fire 2-0 in a BO3, and 1WIN’s recent map profile is strongest on Dust2 and Inferno, with a near-total Nuke ban rate suggesting they are unlikely to rely on that map in a long veto.[1][4] For Eternal Fire, the same pages point to a broader but less dominant pool, with Mirage as a more reliable pick and Inferno appearing in their ban pattern, which matters in a BO5 because the veto can stretch weaker maps into play.[2][4]

The main catalysts traders should watch are roster and schedule confirmation, plus any last-minute format or timing changes before the settlement window closes. The listed line-ups on the match pages show 1WIN with Qikert, lattykk, oz1k, reyoz and cronuss, while Eternal Fire are shown with MisteM, br0, regali, Kvem and jottAAA; any change to those five-man cores would materially alter the read on the price.[1] The playoff schedule is set for 16-24 July 2026, so a delay, technical issue, or a rescheduled start beyond seven days would be relevant to settlement under the market rules.[5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Eternal Fire (BO5) - European Pro League Series 8 Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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