Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: BTF (-1.5) vs Rune Eaters (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Butterfly (-3.5) vs Rune Eaters (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Butterfly (-3.5) vs Rune Eaters (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Butterfly (-9.5) vs Rune Eaters (+9.5) | 10% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: RE (-1.5) vs Butterfly (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Butterfly (-6.5) vs Rune Eaters (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Rune Eaters (-6.5) vs Butterfly (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Rune Eaters (-3.5) vs Butterfly (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Butterfly (-6.5) vs Rune Eaters (+6.5) | 0% |
Market context
Butterfly and Rune Eaters are meeting in a best-of-three playoff tie in CCT Europe Series #6, with the match listed for 5 August and the settlement window closing later the same day. Rune Eaters have already shown they can survive the bracket: they beat SPARTA 2-1 in this event on 1 August and edged UNiTY 2-1 on 30 July, both results suggesting a team capable of getting through close series rather than only dominating weaker opposition.[7][17]
The market’s 100% implied probability points to the match having already been completed or one side being effectively locked in by the available results, rather than a live 50-50 contest. In comparable CCT playoff spots, best-of-three formats have tended to produce volatile swings when vetoes reach a decider, and Rune Eaters’ recent profile fits that pattern: they have been competitive in multi-map series, but not untouchable, which is the sort of form that can quickly justify a less extreme price if the result is not fully confirmed.[3][7][14]
For traders, the key catalyst is whether the scheduled playoff slot is actually played on time and with the listed line-up, because CCT brackets are single-elimination and all playoff matches are bo3.[3][9] Current schedule listings place Butterfly v Rune Eaters at 11:00–11:15 UTC on 5 August, so the main dependencies are bracket progression, any delay in upstream matches, and final score confirmation from the event tracker rather than team news such as substitutions or withdrawals, which are not flagged in the sources provided.[1][2][4]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #6 Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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