Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Honvéd (-3.5) vs Entropy (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Entropy (-3.5) vs Honvéd (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Entropy (-3.5) vs Honvéd (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Entropy (-6.5) vs Honvéd (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Entropy (-6.5) vs Honvéd (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: Honvéd (-1.5) vs Entropy (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Honvéd (-3.5) vs Entropy (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: Entropy (-1.5) vs Honvéd (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Honvéd (-6.5) vs Entropy (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Entropy (-9.5) vs Honvéd (+9.5) | 0% |
Market context
Entropy and Honvéd are locked in a decider Best-of-3 at the CCT Europe Closed Qualifier Series #5 Group B, with the match already played on 19 July 2026 and Honvéd winning 2–1 after Entropy took the opener 13–9 on Dust2 before collapsing 3–13 on Mirage and 5–13 on Ancient [1][2]. The 0% YES probability for Entropy reflects this completed result, where Honvéd’s superior round-swing (+7.00% vs +4.00%) and higher KAST (73.0% vs 71.2%) proved decisive in a tight 1–0 head-to-head record that previously saw Entropy win 2–1 on 15 July [2][4].
Historically, decider matches in CCT Europe qualifiers where one team holds a 1–0 H2H advantage but loses the first decider often see the trailing side fail to recover in subsequent group stages, especially when their map veto leaves them vulnerable on core maps like Mirage and Ancient [1][4]. In this case, Entropy’s 40% win rate against Honvéd contrasts sharply with Honvéd’s 60%, and Strafe users overwhelmingly favoured Honvéd (80.3%–92.7% across different polls) despite Entropy’s higher world ranking (#135 vs #74) [4][10].
Traders should monitor official CCT Europe result confirmations and any post-match roster changes, as Honvéd’s lineup (1NSERT2, C7upiX, er9k) showed stronger multi-kill ratings (1.24 vs 1.26) and average damage per round (84.4 vs 86.3) in the decider [2]. No new suspensions or injuries have been announced since the match concluded, and the settlement window remains open until 19 July 2026, 17:00 UTC, with the outcome already fixed as Honvéd [1].
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Honvéd (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #5 Group B. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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