Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
62% | 38% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
62% | 38% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 62% |
| Match Winner | 61% |
| Map 2 Winner | 54% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 46% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FaZe (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) | 45% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FaZe (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) | 43% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FaZe (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) | 38% |
| Map Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) | 34% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs FaZe (+3.5) | 31% |
Market context
FaZe against The MongolZ is a best-of-three quarter-final in BLAST Bounty Playoffs, with the market’s 62% implied yes price leaving FaZe as a modest favourite rather than a strong one. That is consistent with recent head-to-head history: The MongolZ have won four of the five recorded meetings shown by BLAST and Strafe, including 2-0 and 2-1 wins, while FaZe’s notable counterpoint was a 2-0 at the Austin Major playoffs after a 13-11 Ancient and 13-4 Anubis. [1][8][11]
The form case is mixed but leans towards a tight series rather than a blowout. The same BLAST head-to-head page shows FaZe’s recent tournament win rate at 25.0% across 16 maps, while The MongolZ have generally been the steadier side in this matchup and are ranked higher in the current third-party tables cited by Strafe. Recent comparable encounters also suggest map vetoes matter a lot: The MongolZ have repeatedly punished FaZe on fast starts, while FaZe’s best results have come when they have been able to stabilise mid-series and force their own pace. [1][8]
For traders, the main catalysts are roster and schedule confirmation before the quarter-final window, plus any late substitution news or server-time changes from BLAST. A delayed start, cancellation, or an unplayed fixture would move settlement away from a standard win/loss outcome and towards the market’s 50-50 rule, so official bracket updates matter as much as performance news. With no injury angle in Counter-Strike, the practical watchlist is lineup announcements, coach or stand-in usage, and whether the match actually begins within the settlement window. [1][2]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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