Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: NV (-1.5) vs Benched gods (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: BG (-1.5) vs NEW VISION (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Benched gods (-3.5) vs NEW VISION (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Benched gods (-3.5) vs NEW VISION (+3.5) | 0% |
Market context
NEW VISION’s BO3 against Benched gods in CCT Europe Closed Qualifier Series #6 Group C has already been listed with a completed 2-0 result, which matters more than the 100% crowd-implied probability: the market can only be accurate if the underlying match actually settles as played. The last head-to-head also went NEW VISION’s way, with a 2-0 win in May, so the direct matchup does not point to an obvious upset case if the result is confirmed as final.[2][4]
The form picture is more mixed. Strafe’s recent snapshot had Benched gods winning three of their last five while NEW VISION had lost five straight, yet GosuGamers’ pre-match page still showed NEW VISION slightly ahead in world ranking and both sides entered with enough volatility that a BO3 remained live on map vetoes and opening pistols.[3][5] That split between short-term form and prior meeting is the main historical frame traders have used for this pairing: Benched gods have looked stronger across recent results, but NEW VISION have already beaten this roster once in a series setting.[4][6]
The catalyst to watch is whether the match is formally recorded as completed before the settlement window closes, because the market rules treat a non-played fixture, tie, or excessive delay as 50-50 rather than a win for either side. Live score pages had the series underway, while multiple match pages still needed final confirmation, so any late venue issue, admin ruling, or bracket reschedule would be more important here than ordinary roster noise.[2][7]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Benched gods (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #6 Group C. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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