Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map Handicap: WW (-1.5) vs TDK (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-3.5) vs WW Team (+3.5) | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs WW Team (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-3.5) vs WW Team (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-3.5) vs WW Team (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-6.5) vs WW Team (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: WW Team (-3.5) vs TDK (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-6.5) vs WW Team (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 0% |
Market context
WW Team face TDK in a CIS LAN Championship playoff BO3, with the market effectively pricing a near-certain WW Team win despite the available form data pointing the other way. Strafe lists TDK as rank #22 and WW Team at #67, with TDK winning four of their last five and WW Team three of their last five; it also notes this is their first recorded head-to-head in the matchup database.[1] The strongest historical reference point is that WW Team have already beaten TDK in a prior BO3 on 5 March 2026, when WW Team won 2-0 in the IZI WEX Season 1 playoffs.[7][8]
That earlier result matters because it shows WW Team can convert against this opponent in a short series, but the wider 2026 sample still leans towards TDK on ranking and recent win rate.[1][7] Comparable CIS LAN playoff results also suggest volatility: WW Team have had mixed outcomes across the season, including a 2-0 loss to 1WIN in the CIS LAN #4 playoffs and a 2-0 win over Nemiga in the current season’s knockout run, while TDK fell 2-0 to 1WIN in an earlier playoff tie.[2][10] In a BO3, map vetoes can narrow the gap quickly, so the market’s 100% YES implies traders are assuming either a late roster issue for TDK or a stale price rather than a straightforward form edge.
The main catalysts are line-up confirmation, start-time changes, and whether the semi-final stays on schedule. The fixture is listed for 30 July at around 09:00 UTC / 6:00AM ET, and any postponement, walkover, or bracket reshuffle before the settlement window closes would matter directly for a 50-50 fallback outcome.[1][3] Watch for official tournament updates, because a non-played match, a tie, or a delay beyond seven days from the scheduled date all trigger 50-50 settlement under the market rules; if the series starts but ends by forfeit, the result still depends on which team is awarded the win.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: WW Team vs TDK (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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