Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Map 3 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-3.5) vs WW Team (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: WW Team (-3.5) vs Virtus.pro (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 4 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-3.5) vs WW Team (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 4 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-6.5) vs WW Team (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 4 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs WW Team (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: VP (-2.5) vs WW Team (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-6.5) vs WW Team (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-6.5) vs WW Team (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-3.5) vs WW Team (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: WW Team (-6.5) vs Virtus.pro (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: WW Team (-9.5) vs Virtus.pro (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: WW (-2.5) vs Virtus.pro (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: WW (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-3.5) vs WW Team (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: WW Team (-6.5) vs Virtus.pro (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: WW Team (-3.5) vs Virtus.pro (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 4 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-9.5) vs WW Team (+9.5) | 0% |
Market context
Virtus.pro and WW Team are scheduled to meet in a best-of-five grand final at the CIS LAN Championship playoffs, but the market’s 0% YES pricing only makes sense if the current fixture state is still unresolved or the event has already slipped beyond the quoted settlement window. The strongest recent comparable read is that Virtus.pro beat WW Team 2:1 in their last documented meeting at CIS LAN Championship #6, with VP taking Dust2 and Cache while WW responded on Nuke[2][4][7].
That head-to-head matters because the only available recent meeting showed Virtus.pro with the cleaner map control and the deeper series win, while WW Team were forced into the lower bracket route after that defeat[2][4]. External ranking snapshots from the same event period also had Virtus.pro ahead of WW Team, with VP around #37 and WW around #72, which supports a favourite-lay setup rather than a coin-flip market[3]. A separate January 2026 meeting between the sides also went to WW Team 2:1, so the matchup is not one-sided, but the latest evidence still tilts towards Virtus.pro on form and standing[9][10].
For traders, the key catalysts are whether the grand final is actually played on schedule and whether either side confirms a stand-in or other roster change before veto. The published schedule listed Virtus.pro vs WW Team as a BO5 event starting at 17:00 on 30 July, while the later match page still showed the fixture as not started, so any late cancellation, delay, or format change would matter more than ordinary form data[1][12]. If the series is postponed beyond seven days or never begins, the market rules point to a 50-50 settlement rather than a team win.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: WW Team vs Virtus.pro (BO5) - CIS LAN Championship Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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