Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 100% |
| Any Player Rampage | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 91% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: Z10 (-1.5) vs Dandelions (+1.5) | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Game Handicap: DAN (-1.5) vs Zero Tenacity (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Dandelions meet Zero Tenacity in a best-of-three at the EPL Masters Play-In group stage, with the market near a dead-heat despite the current 0% YES price. On recent evidence, that zero is harder to justify than the tape suggests: Strafe lists Dandelions as the slightly higher-ranked side at #36, but also says they have won none of their last five, while Zero Tenacity have taken three of five and sit at #53.[1] Bo3.gg’s pre-match notes point the same way, flagging Dandelions’ weaker half-year win rate and Zero Tenacity’s stronger recent series record, while also noting both teams have shown volatility against different styles.[2]
The historical frame is thin because this is the first reported head-to-head between the sides, so traders have to lean more on current form and roster continuity than on matchup history.[1][2] That matters in a BO3, where recent map endurance and adaptation tend to decide more than raw team ranking. Dandelions have at least shown they can close out lower-tier opposition, but their recent losses to stronger regional teams suggest a ceiling problem when opponents can punish drafting or laning mistakes.[2] Zero Tenacity’s June run included multiple series wins, which is the more relevant comparator for a short group-stage series.[2]
The main catalysts to watch are line-up confirmation, start time changes, and whether the series is actually played as scheduled, because one listing has already marked the fixture as postponed/cancelled while other match pages show it live or underway, which is exactly the kind of scheduling noise that can force a 50-50 settlement if the game never resolves.[4][6][8] Team sheets on live match pages show full starters for both sides, with no suspension or injury issues reported in the available sources.[2][9] If there is a late format or timing shuffle around EPL Masters Play-In Group B, that is the factor most likely to move this market more than any headline ranking gap.[1][2]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Dota 2: Dandelions vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group B. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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