Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
61% | 39% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
61% | 39% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 61% |
| Any Player Rampage | 56% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 55% |
| Any Player Rampage | 54% |
| Game 1 Winner | 53% |
| Game 2 Winner | 52% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 51% |
| Ends in Daytime | 51% |
| Any Player Rampage | 51% |
| Match Winner | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 49% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 49% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 49% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 48% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 48% |
| Ends in Daytime | 48% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 47% |
| Game Handicap: ICxI (-1.5) vs Team Jenz (+1.5) | 45% |
Market context
Team Jenz meet Inner Circle in a best-of-three EPL Masters Play-In group match, with the market sitting close to a coin flip despite the pre-match data leaning towards Team Jenz. Strafe lists Team Jenz as winners of their last two matches, while Inner Circle have lost their last five, and that contrast is reflected in the broader community view, where Strafe users backed Team Jenz by 77.8%[1]. The absence of a strong head-to-head history also matters: Strafe says this is the first recorded meeting between the sides, so traders are leaning more on current form than on any direct matchup evidence[2].
The main line-moving catalyst is whether Inner Circle can stabilise a roster that DLTV describes as unchanged for 127 days, because continuity has not translated into results so far; DLTV still flags them as having lost five straight[6]. Team Jenz, by contrast, entered the fixture with no matches in Strafe’s database and no ranking position there, which means the market is pricing them largely off a short recent run rather than a deep statistical base[2]. With the series already scheduled for 23 July and listed as live on match trackers, any last-minute substitution, forfeiture, schedule slip or replay issue would matter because the contract only settles on a completed winner, otherwise falling back to 50-50 if the match is not played or drifts beyond the settlement window[3][5].
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Dota 2: Team Jenz vs Inner Circle (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group A. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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