Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: LYNX (-1.5) vs PuckChamp (+1.5) | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Game Handicap: PckCp (-1.5) vs Team Lynx (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
PuckChamp and Team Lynx are scheduled to play a best-of-three upper-bracket quarter-final in the Asgard Championship Playoffs, with the market still carrying a 100% YES price despite the risk of late schedule movement or a no-contest outcome. The cleanest form read is their only recent head-to-head: PuckChamp beat Team Lynx 2-0 on 20 July, and multiple match pages still list PuckChamp as the historical winner in that pairing.[3][5][12]
That result matters because the broader form lines are less decisive than the market suggests. PuckChamp’s recent run has been mixed, with reports of a 30% win rate over the last month and several losses in five, while Team Lynx have also been uneven, including a 20% recent win rate in one data set and a 1-1 or 1-4 style slide depending on the tracker used.[3][5][11] In ranking terms the gap is modest rather than dominant, with sources placing PuckChamp around 33-34 and Team Lynx around 40-43, so the prior 2-0 is the clearest single anchor for the current price rather than any overwhelming class edge.[5][12]
For traders, the key catalysts are availability and timing. The fixture has been listed with slightly different start times across live trackers, ranging from 18:00 UTC to 19:30 UTC, which is relevant for a market that settles only once a winner is confirmed and can revert to 50-50 if the match is not played or is delayed beyond seven days.[1][2][5] The line should also be watched for any last-minute roster changes on either side, as the published team lists on match pages are the main live indicator of whether this is the same matchup that produced PuckChamp’s recent 2-0 win.[3][12]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Dota 2: PuckChamp vs Team Lynx (BO3) - Asgard Championship Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I trade Premier League prediction markets from the UK?
- Yes. Polymarket has Premier League outcome markets (title winner, relegation, top scorer). For UK traders wanting GBP settlement and UKGC protection, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer Premier League futures and match markets. Betfair is the deepest liquidity venue for UK football exchange markets.
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