Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 100% |
| Any Player Rampage | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Match Winner | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Execration (+1.5) | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 75.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Game Handicap: XctN (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5) | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 80.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 90.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
Market context
PlayTime’s BO3 with Execration is a playoff tie between two sides that have arrived with broadly similar recent form, which helps explain why the market has not had an obvious catalyst to price aggressively in either direction. Strafe’s current ranking model has PlayTime at No. 18 and Execration at No. 22, while both teams are listed as having won only two of their last five matches, so this looks more like a marginal-quality edge than a mismatch. [5] [2]
Recent history leans slightly towards PlayTime on paper, but the sample is thin and noisy. The teams have little meaningful head-to-head data; one live match page says they have not met in the last six months, while another historical record from January shows Execration beating PlayTime 2-1 before PlayTime later taking a 2-0 in a separate qualifier context, which is the sort of split that usually supports uncertainty rather than a strong consensus. [3] [14] [16] Execration do at least enter with a stable roster reference on some match databases, whereas PlayTime’s line-up has been reported as having changed in the past month, a factor that can move prices quickly if confirmed in official team posts. [10]
Traders should watch for any late roster confirmation, stand-in announcement or schedule change around the planned 05:00 UTC start, because the market’s settlement rules turn on whether the BO3 is actually completed. A live match page already lists the series at 0-0, which suggests it is on the schedule rather than cancelled at source, but Dota playoff timings can still shift if earlier games run long. [2] [1] The most important catalyst is simple: whether both teams field their expected five and the series begins on time, since an abandoned or heavily delayed match can force a 50-50 resolution under the market rules.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Dota 2: PlayTime vs Execration (BO3) - Games of the Future Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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