Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Match Winner | 92% |
| Ends in Daytime | 90% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 90% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) | 73% |
| Game 3 Winner | 62% |
| Game 4 Winner | 56% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 50% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 50% |
| Game Handicap: PlayTime (-2.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+2.5) | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 3? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 3? | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| Ends in Daytime | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 75.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 1% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Rampage | 1% |
| Game Handicap: YB (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5) | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Game Handicap: YB (-2.5) vs PlayTime (+2.5) | 0% |
Market context
PlayTime and Yakult Brothers are in the Dota 2 grand final at the Games of the Future, with the match listed as a best-of-five in Astana and starting at 12:00 UTC on 5 August. Both sides arrive after strong playoff runs: PlayTime swept Team Resilience 2-0, while Yakult Brothers beat Rune Eaters 2-1 in the semi-finals. [6][2][8]
The 100% crowd-implied price is consistent with how one-sided finals can look on paper when the market has already absorbed the bracket path and recent form. PlayTime is listed higher in recent ranking snapshots, at around world No. 12 versus Yakult Brothers around No. 21-27 depending on the tracker, and both teams have won four of their last five matches. There is no head-to-head record to lean on here, with one source describing this as their first meeting, so traders are mostly pricing current level rather than any historical edge. [2][9][11]
The main catalysts are confirmation of the line-ups, any last-minute schedule changes, and whether the series actually starts on time, because the market’s settlement window is tied to a fixed deadline. Tournament organisers published the final for 17:00 local Astana time, which differs from some third-party listings, so timing drift matters if the series is delayed or interrupted. A recent event page also highlights specific stand-out performers from the semi-finals, with Abed leading PlayTime and Emo pacing Yakult Brothers, making their availability and role in draft execution the most relevant late information. [6][8][14]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Dota 2: PlayTime vs Yakult Brothers (BO5) - Games of the Future Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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