Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Team Refuser and Game Master are set to compete in the lower bracket quarterfinal of the International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs, a best-of-three match that determines progression toward securing a slot at The International. This qualifier represents one of the final opportunities for Chinese Dota 2 squads to earn direct invitations to the world championship, making the stakes material for both rosters.

The 100% implied probability warrants scrutiny given the volatility typical of regional qualifiers and the limited public information available on recent form between these specific teams. Chinese Dota 2 qualifiers have historically produced upsets when roster changes or substitutions occur close to competition dates, and lower bracket matches frequently feature teams with comparable skill levels where preparation depth and draft flexibility determine outcomes. Without confirmed recent head-to-head records or substantial performance differentials documented in major tournaments, such extreme certainty suggests either substantial private information among traders or potential mispricing of Game Master's competitive standing.

Traders should monitor official qualifier announcements for any last-minute roster confirmations, stand-in players, or scheduling adjustments through the Dota 2 esports channels and PGL's official communications. The settlement window closes 17 June at 10:00 UTC, leaving minimal buffer for delays; any postponement beyond seven days triggers a 50-50 resolution. Fixture confirmation and team availability updates typically emerge 24–48 hours before match time, providing critical data points for reassessing the current probability before the market locks.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.