Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 90% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 90% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
Market context
The Esports World Cup 2026 Group C match between REKONIX and PARIVISION is scheduled for 14:00 UTC today, with PARIVISION heavily favoured to win the Best-of-2 contest. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for REKONIX, reflecting a stark disparity in recent form and historical dominance between the two sides.
Historical precedents in elite Dota 2 tournaments show that when a team holds a 100% head-to-head record and double the recent half-year earnings, the market rarely offers value on the underdog unless a catastrophic lineup change occurs. PARIVISION, ranked world number 1 with a 67% monthly winrate and $525,000 in earnings, has defeated REKONIX in both prior meetings (March and May). REKONIX, ranked 63rd with a declining 42% winrate and two consecutive 0-2 losses in this tournament, faces a tactical mismatch that mirrors past group-stage collapses where lower-ranked teams failed to adapt to top-tier LAN pressure.
Traders should monitor official lineup announcements for REKONIX, particularly regarding starter jikroy or inYourdreaM, as any substitution could shift the probability line. The match begins at 14:00 UTC, and any delay beyond seven days or cancellation would trigger a 50-50 settlement, though PARIVISION’s superior LAN experience makes such outcomes unlikely. Recent reports from Bo3.gg confirm PARIVISION’s current winstreak and group-stage momentum, reinforcing the market’s confidence in their victory [1].
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Dota 2: REKONIX vs PARIVISION (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group C. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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