Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs Execration (+1.5) | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 75% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 74% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 26% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 25% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 1? | 25% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Rampage | 1% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Game Handicap: XctN (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Yellow Submarine’s Group A opener against Execration has been listed to start at 05:00 UTC, with several fixtures and live-score pages still showing the match as scheduled rather than completed. That matters for a market already priced at 100% yes: the most immediate risk is not a competitive upset but a scheduling or status change, because prediction markets here also resolve to 50-50 if the game is cancelled, tied, or pushed out beyond the seven-day settlement window. [1][12][18]
On recent form, Yellow Submarine have the clearer record in the available summaries, with one source showing a 61% win rate over the last three months, a better KDA and higher average GPM than Execration, while Execration are listed lower in the same ranking snapshot and with a weaker recent win/loss split. The head-to-head angle is thin because the available market pages do not show a meaningful prior series between these two, so traders are leaning more on current team level than on direct matchup history. [3][5][19]
The main catalysts are roster confirmation and whether the match actually runs in the published slot. One Russian-language match page lists Yellow Submarine with shigetsu, Rain, batyuk, ryota and Xakoda, while Execration’s page has circulated with multiple lineup variants across different listings, which is a reminder that late roster edits can matter more than pre-match ratings in group-stage Dota. Live pages are already tracking the series, so any delay, abandonment, or reschedule should be visible quickly; in a best-of-three, the key line move usually comes from whether the reported start time holds and whether both teams field the expected five. [3][10][16]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Execration (BO3) - Games of the Future Group A. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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