Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
74% | 26% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
74% | 26% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 74% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 69% |
| Game 1 Winner | 67% |
| Game 2 Winner | 67% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 65% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 64% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 63% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 63% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2? | 61% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? | 60% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 56% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 52% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 52% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5) | 46% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 46% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 43% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 42% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 27% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 27% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 17% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 14% |
Market context
Market consensus: 74% chance of lol: cloud9 vs shopify rebellion (bo3) - lcs regular season. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL match between Cloud9 and Shopify Rebellion in the LCS Regular Season, initially scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET. This market will resolve…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for LoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - LCS Regular Season. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I trade Premier League prediction markets from the UK?
- Yes. Polymarket has Premier League outcome markets (title winner, relegation, top scorer). For UK traders wanting GBP settlement and UKGC protection, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer Premier League futures and match markets. Betfair is the deepest liquidity venue for UK football exchange markets.
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