LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2

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Active sub-markets

Market context

BNK FEARX face T1 in a League of Legends Champions Korea best-of-three fixture scheduled for 30 May 2026 at 06:00 ET. The 0% implied probability reflects T1's historical dominance in the LCK and their consistent roster strength, though BNK FEARX's actual competitive standing relative to T1 this season will determine whether the market has priced in sufficient margin. T1 have won multiple LCK titles and Worlds championships, establishing them as the region's benchmark franchise, whilst BNK FEARX operate as a lower-tier organisation with limited recent playoff appearances.

The settlement window closes at 16:15 UTC on 30 May, providing a narrow window for match completion given the 06:00 ET start time. Traders should monitor LCK scheduling confirmations and any roster changes announced in the weeks prior—suspensions, injuries, or substitute players could shift expected performance margins. Recent form data from both teams' spring season records, kill-death ratios, and objective control metrics would clarify whether the current odds reflect genuine capability gaps or historical bias. Any postponement beyond 7 days triggers a 50-50 resolution, introducing settlement risk if the LCK reschedules matches due to technical issues or player availability.

The match outcome hinges on mid-game macro execution and team fight coordination, areas where T1 typically maintain structural advantages. BNK FEARX would require significant roster upgrades or T1 fielding experimental line-ups to generate meaningful upset probability. Confirmation of final starting rosters approximately one week before the fixture represents the key catalyst for probability adjustment.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.