Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+1.5) | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 90% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 90% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 18.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 1% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 1% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 0% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
Market context
Fluxo W7M and FURIA Esports meet in a CBLOL regular-season best-of-three, and the market’s 0% YES pricing is in line with the broader record rather than a one-off upset script. FURIA have generally had the stronger head-to-head profile across recent meetings, with results logged as 2-0 in April 2026 and earlier wins over Fluxo in 2025, while historical matchup pages show FURIA ahead in the series tally and better recent standing in rankings and form indicators.[1][3][6][10][11][13]
For traders, the main questions are whether the scheduled start is kept and whether either side makes late roster or substitute changes, as those are the only realistic catalysts that can move a near-absolute market. The match was listed to begin on 9 August 2026 at 18:00 UTC, and current live listings indicate it is the same CBLOL regular-season fixture rather than a rescheduled or altered event.[2][11] In practical terms, the price is most sensitive to any official pre-match announcement on line-up confirmation, competitive integrity issues, or a delay beyond the settlement window; absent that, historical results and team strength point towards FURIA as the clear favourite.[4][7][11]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for LoL: Fluxo W7M vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I trade Premier League prediction markets from the UK?
- Yes. Polymarket has Premier League outcome markets (title winner, relegation, top scorer). For UK traders wanting GBP settlement and UKGC protection, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer Premier League futures and match markets. Betfair is the deepest liquidity venue for UK football exchange markets.
Trade LoL: Fluxo W7M vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - CBLOL Regula… on Champions League Prediction
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →