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LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Football snapshot for "LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs" with form, lineup and platform comparison on a single page.

Match Winner 74% First Blood in Game 1? 71% Game 2 Winner 67% O/U 3.5 Games 67% Volume: $164K Liquidity: $257K Closes: 4 Jul 2026
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LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
74% 26% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
74% 26% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner74%
First Blood in Game 1?71%
Game 2 Winner67%
O/U 3.5 Games67%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?67%
Game 1 Winner66%
Game 3 Winner66%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?63%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon61%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon59%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon59%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5)57%
Odd/Even Total Kills56%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?56%
Odd/Even Total Kills54%
Odd/Even Total Kills53%
Odd/Even Total Kills52%
Game 4 Winner51%
Any Player Penta Kill51%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4?50%
Any Player Penta Kill49%
First Blood in Game 3?48%
First Blood in Game 2?48%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?48%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?48%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon47%
First Blood in Game 4?47%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon46%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?46%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?42%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?40%
Any Player Quadra Kill39%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors38%
Any Player Quadra Kill38%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor37%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors37%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor37%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors37%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?37%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor36%
Any Player Quadra Kill36%
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5)31%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?29%
O/U 4.5 Games28%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?28%
Any Player Penta Kill24%
Any Player Penta Kill24%
Any Player Penta Kill23%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, lol: lyon vs furia esports (bo5) - mid-season invitational playoffs stands at 74% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket quarterfinal 2 match between LYON and FURIA Esports in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 3 at 11:00PM E…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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