Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game Handicap: CPD (-1.5) vs Maryville University (+1.5) | 100% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 90% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 90% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 10% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% |
Market context
Maryville University’s meeting with Cupid Esports in the North American Challengers League group stage is a live best-of-three that was scheduled for 31 July at 21:00 UTC, and the market’s 0% YES price is already detached from the scoreboard because the match has been listed as completed, with Cupid Esports shown as the winner 2-0 on Sofascore.[1][3] That makes the current crowd line hard to defend on pure event status: if the series result stands, the path to a Maryville payout is effectively gone.[3]
Historically, this pairing was being framed as very close on pre-match sentiment, which helps explain why any late movement would have been driven by team news rather than a wide class gap. Strafe listed Maryville at around 7/10 recent form and Cupid at 2/10, yet also noted that Cupid had won its last two matches and that the teams had never met before, while Polymarket’s own market page said Maryville came in with a stronger foundation after a 7-2 Spring split and a College League of Legends title.[5][7][8] GosuGamers’ tournament page also had Cupid ranked slightly higher in world ranking terms, 65th to Maryville’s 73rd, which is consistent with a narrow, information-sensitive price rather than a one-sided spot.[2]
For traders, the main catalysts were roster confirmation and whether the series actually produced an official result before the settlement cut-off. Liquipedia notes Cupid eSports only entered the Summer league after replacing Supernova on 22 June, with further June departures from the roster, so late lineup stability was always a key variable.[16] Because the market resolves 50-50 if the match is cancelled, tied, or delayed beyond seven days without a winner, the practical watchpoints are official result confirmation, any protest or admin ruling, and whether the published scoreline is retained by the league and market resolver.[1][3]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for LoL: Maryville University vs Cupid Esports (BO3) - North American Challengers League Group Stage. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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