Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-2.5) vs LOUD (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: LOUD (-2.5) vs Cloud9 (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: LOUD (-2.5) vs Cloud9 (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-3.5) vs LOUD (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-4.5) vs LOUD (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: LOUD (-3.5) vs Cloud9 (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: LOUD (-4.5) vs Cloud9 (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: LOUD (-3.5) vs Cloud9 (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: LOUD (-4.5) vs Cloud9 (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 53% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-6.5) vs LOUD (+6.5) | 48% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-2.5) vs LOUD (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: LOUD (-5.5) vs Cloud9 (+5.5) | 1% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: LOUD (-6.5) vs Cloud9 (+6.5) | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs LOUD (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-2.5) vs LOUD (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: LOUD (-1.5) vs Cloud9 (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: LOUD (-2.5) vs Cloud9 (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: LOUD (-3.5) vs Cloud9 (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Cloud9 (-5.5) vs LOUD (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: LOUD (-5.5) vs Cloud9 (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: LOUD (-6.5) vs Cloud9 (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Cloud9’s Bo3 with LOUD is priced at an extreme 100% YES, even though the recent form and head-to-head data suggest a much tighter match than that implies. Cloud9 have been in a poor run, with no wins in their last five on the sampled record, while LOUD have taken three of their last five; across the most recent four meetings, the series is level at 2-2, with LOUD winning the latest clash 2-1 on 3 May 2026 and Cloud9 sweeping 2-0 in January[1][3][4]. That history matters because these teams have repeatedly traded maps rather than producing one-sided results, and recent 2026 meetings have all gone to three maps or a sweep in either direction[1][3].
For traders, the main catalysts are roster and scheduling confirmation, plus any last-minute competitive rulings that could affect map completion or even force a no-contest settlement. The market description says the match was initially set for 31 July at 5:00pm ET, and the settlement window runs to 1 August 2026 at 03:00 UTC, so the key risk is not just who starts strongly but whether the fixture is actually completed inside that window[6][8]. Recent reporting on the matchup also flags Cloud9’s slump and LOUD’s steadier recent output, which is why a full series win for either side still looks more plausible than the crowd-implied certainty suggests[1][9].
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Valorant: Cloud9 vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Omega. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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