Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-3.5) vs FunPlus Phoenix (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-3.5) vs FunPlus Phoenix (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs FunPlus Phoenix (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs FunPlus Phoenix (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs FunPlus Phoenix (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-3.5) vs FunPlus Phoenix (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs FunPlus Phoenix (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-4.5) vs FunPlus Phoenix (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: FPX (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
FunPlus Phoenix’s meeting with EDward Gaming is a best-of-three in VCT China Stage 2 Group Alpha, and the live market has already priced in a near-certainty for EDward Gaming. That fits the wider match history: EDG have won 9 of the 11 recorded head-to-heads, including a 2-0 win in their last direct meeting on 9 May 2025, while FPX have taken only 2. Recent group-stage results point in the same direction. FPX did post a 2-0 win over JD Gaming, but they were then beaten 2-1 by TYLOO; EDG also beat Trace Esports 2-0, even after TYLOO had edged them 2-1 earlier in the stage.[1][6]
The key context for traders is whether any late roster or schedule news shifts the line-up quality before the series starts. No injury or suspension issue is flagged in the available reporting, so the main catalyst is simply confirmation that both squads field their planned starters and that the match begins on schedule. That matters because the market’s settlement rules hinge on the match being completed: if it is cancelled, delayed beyond seven days, or otherwise never produces a winner, it resolves 50-50 rather than to either side. The listed start times are also slightly inconsistent across trackers, which is worth watching close to lock-in.[1][2][8]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Group Alpha. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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