Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-3.5) vs DetonatioN FocusMe (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs DetonatioN FocusMe (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-3.5) vs DetonatioN FocusMe (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-3.5) vs DetonatioN FocusMe (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs DetonatioN FocusMe (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-4.5) vs DetonatioN FocusMe (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: DFM (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
T1 face DetonatioN FocusMe in a best-of-three at VCT Pacific Group Omega, with the market currently priced at 0% for T1 despite the fixture carrying the sort of matchup profile that has usually favoured the Korean side. Recent matchup data points T1 into the stronger historical position: BO3.gg lists T1 with a 4-1 head-to-head edge across the connected recent sample, while another match page shows T1 winning the latest meeting 2-0 in April 2026.[7][1] That record matters because these teams have repeatedly produced outcomes that track team quality more closely than short-term noise, with T1 generally taking the veto and opening-map advantage when the series has been decisive.[2][7]
The main trader watchpoints are roster continuity and whether the event proceeds as scheduled before the settlement window closes. Current match listings show both sides on full starter line-ups, with T1 using iZu, Meteor, stax, BuZz and Munchkin, and DetonatioN FocusMe fielding Meiy, Akame, SSeeS, yatsuka and Caedye, so any last-minute substitute news would be the clearest line-moving catalyst.[2][7] Form also leans T1: the same previews describe T1 as 3-2 in the recent sample versus 1-4 for DFM, while DFM’s broader half-year numbers have been materially weaker.[2][7] If the series is delayed, cancelled, or not completed within seven days of the scheduled date, the market rules imply a 50-50 settlement rather than a normal team win, so schedule confirmation is as important as competitive form.[0]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Valorant: T1 vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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