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Valorant: Team Heretics vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega

How the prediction market is pricing "Valorant: Team Heretics vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Map Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) 100% Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5) 100% Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5) 100% Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-4.5) vs Team Heretics (+4.5) 100% Volume: $356K Liquidity: $3.0M Closes: 27 Jul 2026
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Valorant: Team Heretics vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5)100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5)100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5)100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-4.5) vs Team Heretics (+4.5)100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-3.5) vs Team Heretics (+3.5)100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-5.5) vs Team Heretics (+5.5)100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-3.5) vs Team Heretics (+3.5)100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-4.5) vs Team Heretics (+4.5)100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-6.5) vs Team Heretics (+6.5)100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-7.5) vs Team Heretics (+7.5)100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-6.5) vs Team Heretics (+6.5)100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-5.5) vs Team Heretics (+5.5)100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-7.5) vs Team Heretics (+7.5)100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-8.5) vs Team Heretics (+8.5)100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-8.5) vs Team Heretics (+8.5)100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-9.5) vs Team Heretics (+9.5)100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-10.5) vs Team Heretics (+10.5)90%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.550%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.550%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5)50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.510%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.51%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.51%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.51%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.51%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-11.5) vs Team Heretics (+11.5)1%
Map 1 Winner0%
Map 2 Winner0%
Match Winner0%
O/U 2.5 Games0%
Map Handicap: TH (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5)0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5)0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-3.5) vs Karmine Corp (+3.5)0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.50%

Market context

Team Heretics and Karmine Corp meet in a best-of-three in VCT EMEA Group Omega, with the market currently pricing a clean Heretics win as much more likely than the crowd-implied 0% YES suggests. Heretics arrive with the stronger recent profile: Bo3.gg lists them on a 67% win rate over the last month and a 71% historical edge in this matchup, while Karmine Corp are shown at 33% over the last month and only 29% in the head-to-head[1]. That backdrop matters because this pairing has repeatedly produced competitive series rather than blowouts, and recent meetings have still tended to lean Heretics’ way by narrow margins[2][3].

The main trading catalysts are roster confirmation, map veto shape and whether either side carries over the latest stage form cleanly into this series. The published line-ups on Bo3.gg show Heretics with benjyfishy, Wo0t, RieNs, Boo and Koshmaras, while Karmine Corp list dos9, N4RRATE, LewN, Avez and SUYGETSU[1]. Heretics also come in off a 2-0 over Eternal Fire in the same group, whereas Karmine Corp’s recent form has been less stable, making pre-match line continuity and any late scheduling change important for settlement risk as the window closes[4]. Recent preview material also points to Heretics being the bookmaker favourite, which is consistent with the historical edge already embedded in the market[7][8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Valorant: Team Heretics vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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