Ethereum price on May 23?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves based on Ethereum's ETH/USDT closing price at noon Eastern Time on 23 May 2026, using Binance's 1-minute candle data. The settlement window extends nearly two years from now, making this a medium-term directional bet on where the second-largest cryptocurrency trades at a specific moment on that date.

Historical precedent suggests that pinpointing exact price levels more than eighteen months ahead carries substantial uncertainty. Ethereum has experienced volatility ranging from 30% to 80% annually across various market cycles since 2020, with major moves often driven by regulatory announcements, macroeconomic shifts, or shifts in institutional adoption rather than predictable technical patterns. The current 0% crowd probability likely reflects the difficulty of forecasting with precision across such an extended timeframe rather than conviction that the price will fall outside all specified brackets.

Key catalysts through to May 2026 include potential regulatory clarity from the SEC and EU frameworks, Ethereum's scaling roadmap progress (particularly Layer 2 adoption metrics), broader cryptocurrency market sentiment tied to Bitcoin movements, and macroeconomic conditions affecting risk assets generally. Any major protocol upgrades, institutional custody developments, or shifts in staking economics could materially influence where traders expect the price to settle. Traders should monitor quarterly earnings reports from major crypto exchanges and custody providers, as well as any legislative developments affecting digital asset classification in major markets.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.