Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ↑ 1,750 | 100% |
| ↑ 1,750 | 100% |
| ↓ 2,500 | 100% |
| ↓ 2,000 | 100% |
| ↑ 2,000 | 87% |
| ↑ 2,250 | 55% |
| ↓ 1,500 | 50% |
| ↑ 2,500 | 34% |
| ↓ 1,250 | 24% |
| ↑ 2,750 | 19% |
| ↑ 3,000 | 16% |
| ↑ 3,500 | 13% |
| ↓ 1,000 | 12% |
| ↓ 800 | 8% |
| ↑ 4,000 | 7% |
| ↓ 700 | 6% |
| ↑ 4,500 | 6% |
| ↓ 600 | 5% |
| ↑ 5,500 | 4% |
| ↑ 5,000 | 4% |
| ↓ 500 | 3% |
| ↑ 6,000 | 3% |
| ↑ 10,000 | 2% |
| ↑ 8,000 | 2% |
| ↑ 7,500 | 2% |
| ↑ 7,000 | 2% |
| ↑ 6,500 | 2% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, what price will ethereum hit in 2026? stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. What price will Ethereum hit before 2027?
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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