Tunisia vs. Japan - Exact Score

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Market context

Tunisia meet Japan in Monterrey with the market leaning heavily towards a Japan-favoured exact score, but the 2% yes price also reflects how specific this contract is: only one listed final result will cash, with anything outside the menu pushed into “Any Other Score”. Tunisia’s numbers before this match have been poor, with one win in five and 11 goals conceded in that spell, while Japan have been steadier, going four wins and one draw in their last five and conceding only twice.[1] The cleanest historical frame is the recent head-to-head: Japan beat Tunisia 2-0 in their last meeting in October 2023, and Japan have won three of the four recorded meetings overall.[1]

For traders, the main catalysts are team news and the likelihood of another controlled Japan performance rather than an open game. ESPN lists Japan at 1 point from a 2-2 draw with the Netherlands and Tunisia on 0 points after a 5-1 defeat to Sweden, which makes group-state incentives relevant: Japan can manage the game differently depending on what they need from the table, while Tunisia’s approach depends on whether they must chase early.[3] Goal’s preview also notes that Japan arrive with the sharper recent scoring profile and Tunisia have been leaking chances, a combination that usually matters more for exact-score markets than simple win probabilities.[1] Any late changes to the starting XIs, especially rotation in Japan’s attack or defensive line, are likely to matter more here than broader tournament form.[1][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.