Türkiye vs. United States - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup Group D match between Türkiye and the United States, scheduled for 25 June 2026 at Los Angeles Stadium, sees the co-hosts aiming for a third consecutive win against an already-eliminated Turkish side. With the USMNT holding six points and Türkiye at zero, the crowd-implied 5% probability for an exact score outcome reflects the high volatility of precise scorelines in elite football, where even dominant form rarely guarantees a specific result.

Historically, exact score markets in World Cup group stages with a 5% implied probability often resolve to "Any Other Score" when teams possess contrasting attacking efficiencies; for instance, the US’s recent 2-1 friendly victory over Türkiye in 2025 and their 2-0 group stage record suggest a narrow margin, yet the 2-0 and 2-1 results in recent friendlies indicate that multiple exact scores remain plausible, diluting the chance of any single outcome. Traders should monitor final line-up announcements for the US, particularly regarding potential suspensions or injuries to key attackers, as confirmed by ESPN’s live coverage noting the US’s strong 2-0-0 group form versus Türkiye’s 0-0-2 record, which could shift the goal expectation significantly if the US deploys a full-strength squad against a demoralised Turkish defence.

Recent news from ESPN highlights the US’s +5 goal difference and Türkiye’s -3 deficit, underscoring the catalyst of US attacking confidence; traders must watch for pre-match squad lists released within hours of the 25 June 10:00 PM ET kick-off, as any withdrawal of a primary scorer could drastically alter the exact score probability, while Türkiye’s elimination status may lead to a more defensive approach, further complicating precise score predictions. The settlement window ending 02:00:00Z on 26 June ensures all regulation and stoppage time results are captured, excluding extra time and penalties, making the 90-minute outcome the sole determinant for market resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.