What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

West Texas Intermediate for August 2026 is trading against a market that has already repriced lower on the back of expected oversupply and a softer demand outlook. Major banks have cut forecasts: Goldman Sachs now sees WTI averaging about $75 in Q4 2026 and $70 in 2027 after the Strait of Hormuz deal, while BMO’s latest call is for a 2026 WTI average of US$60/bbl; earlier 2026 EIA and sell-side estimates were higher, which shows how fast the balance has shifted[7][9][11][12].

For a trader reading the current 1% implied chance, the key comparison is not a single headline level but the spread between bullish disruption scenarios and the baseline path. The EIA’s June Short-Term Energy Outlook still embeds a large conflict premium in Brent while expecting flows through Hormuz to resume gradually and prices to ease in 2027, which argues that August 2026 outcomes will hinge on whether supply interruptions persist beyond the summer[1]. By contrast, several 2026 forecasts in the market sit in the low- to mid-$60s for WTI, with some models materially below that, implying August would need an unusually strong shock to reach higher thresholds[2][4][9][11].

The catalysts to watch are OPEC+ output decisions, any further changes to Middle East shipping risk, and the pace at which US inventory data confirms either tighter balances or a renewed glut. Goldman’s revision after the Strait of Hormuz agreement is the clearest recent example of how quickly crude forecasts can reset when physical flows change[7]. In practice, August contract pricing will also react to weekly EIA stock numbers, refinery utilisation, and whether summer demand holds up against any supply restoration.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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