WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above 2026 on June 10?

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Market context

WTI crude oil will settle on 10 June 2026 at some closing price, and this market asks whether that price will exceed a specified threshold. The current 100% probability suggests the crowd expects WTI to remain above the strike level with near-certainty, reflecting either a very low strike price or an assumption of sustained crude strength through mid-2026.

Historical volatility in WTI provides essential context. Between 2020 and 2024, the benchmark oscillated from sub-$20 per barrel during the pandemic collapse to peaks above $130 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Even during periods of relative stability—such as 2017–2018 when WTI ranged between $40 and $76—daily moves of $2–$4 were routine. A 100% probability on any specific price threshold typically indicates either the strike sits well below consensus forecasts or the settlement window's proximity (less than 18 months away) has compressed uncertainty. Comparable energy futures markets show that crude rarely trades in a narrow enough band to justify absolute certainty unless the threshold is substantially below current spot or forward prices.

Traders should monitor OPEC+ production decisions, US inventory reports (released weekly by the EIA), and geopolitical developments in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Seasonal demand patterns favour higher summer driving season prices in the Northern Hemisphere, though recession signals or unexpected supply surges could pressure WTI downward. The Federal Reserve's interest-rate trajectory will also influence crude through its effect on the US dollar, which moves inversely to oil prices denominated in dollars.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.