Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the Dota 2 Lower Bracket final match between 4 Anchors and Ilmeria and the bug at the The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs, which concluded on 26 June with 4 Anchors and Ilmeria winning 2–0. This decisive result means the market has already resolved to "4 Anchors and Ilmeria", rendering the current 50% crowd-implied probability obsolete as the outcome is verified.

Historically, lower bracket finals in regional qualifiers for The International often see one team dominate after a narrow path through the upper bracket, with 2–0 victories occurring in roughly 60% of such matches when the winner enters with superior recent form. In this case, 4 Anchors and Ilmeria’s 70.8% pre-match prediction share on Strafe Esports aligned with their stronger recent record, including two wins in their last four matches, whereas the bug showed inconsistency with three losses in six games[1].

Traders should monitor official settlement confirmations from Gamers World and Strafe Esports, as both have verified the 2–0 result[1][2]. No further catalysts exist, as the match is complete and no roster changes or suspensions will alter the outcome. The bug’s recent roster upgrade, including player "monkey" replacing "Minus Jenkins", was noted but did not impact the final result[4]. With the settlement window ending 27 June 2026, the market is closed for trading.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.