England vs. Croatia - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

England and Croatia meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 17 June at 4:00 PM ET. The market prices an exact-score outcome at 9% implied probability, reflecting the constraint that only one specific scoreline resolves YES whilst all other results default to "Any Other Score." This structure naturally suppresses individual-score odds; even heavily favoured results rarely exceed 15–20% when distributed across a wide range of plausible final tallies.

The two nations' recent competitive history offers limited direct precedent. Their last World Cup encounter came in the 2018 semi-final, which England lost 2–1 after extra time—a result that inflated Croatia's perceived threat level for years despite their subsequent decline in qualifying form. Since then, England has strengthened considerably, reaching the Euro 2020 final and maintaining a top-four FIFA ranking, whilst Croatia's group-stage performances in qualifying have been uneven. Head-to-head records from friendlies and earlier tournaments show England with a marginal edge, though neither side has established dominance. The 9% probability suggests traders are pricing in England as clear favourites without assuming a rout.

Monitoring squad announcements through late May and early June will be critical, particularly injury updates on England's attacking depth and Croatia's midfield stability. Team news typically emerges 48–72 hours before tournament matches. Additionally, the group composition and England's fixture scheduling—whether they've already secured qualification or face elimination pressure—will influence tactical approach and intensity, directly affecting the likelihood of specific scorelines. Weather conditions in North America on match day may also shift the balance towards lower-scoring outcomes.

Methodology

This page reviews England vs. Croatia - Exact Score across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Champions League Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.