Masoud Pezeshkian out by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran's president since August 2023, faces removal or resignation before the end of 2026. The 36% implied probability reflects genuine structural instability in Iranian politics, where the presidency operates within constraints imposed by the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guards Corps. Pezeshkian's tenure has already encountered significant friction over economic policy and nuclear negotiations, with hardline factions openly critical of his reformist positioning.

Historical precedent suggests Iranian presidents do exit office prematurely, though rarely through formal resignation. Mohammad Khatami served two full terms (1997–2005) despite constant institutional opposition, whilst Mahmoud Ahmadinejad completed two terms before being sidelined from subsequent candidacy. Ebrahim Raisi's death in a helicopter crash in May 2024 demonstrated how suddenly presidential transitions can occur, though that was circumstantial rather than political removal. The baseline rate of forced presidential departure in Iran over the past two decades sits below 50%, making the current 36% probability moderately elevated but not extreme.

Traders should monitor three specific triggers: escalation of US sanctions following the 2024 election cycle, which could destabilise Pezeshkian's economic agenda; any formal censure from the Guardian Council regarding policy implementation; and succession positioning within the Revolutionary Guards, which signals whether hardliners intend to engineer his replacement. The market's settlement hinges on announcement alone, meaning even a leaked resignation statement would trigger resolution before any formal transition date.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.