US-Iran deal text released by 2026?

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Market context

On 14 June 2026, the United States and Iran publicly announced a written diplomatic agreement, with a formal signing ceremony scheduled for 19 June. The market resolves affirmatively if any substantive portion of this agreement text enters the public domain before 1 July 2026, and negatively if the full text remains restricted to government officials and negotiating parties through that deadline.

Historical precedent suggests mixed outcomes for agreement transparency in high-stakes US-Iran negotiations. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) saw its full text released publicly within days of the July announcement, though initial summaries circulated beforehand. Conversely, preliminary agreements and framework documents have sometimes remained confidential for weeks or months pending formal ratification processes. The 80% implied probability reflects trader confidence that at least partial disclosure will occur, consistent with modern diplomatic practice where governments typically release key provisions to domestic legislatures and media within a fortnight of announcement.

Traders should monitor several specific catalysts through early July. Congressional notification requirements—particularly if this agreement requires legislative review under the Case Act—would likely trigger text release or detailed summaries within ten days of signing. Media reporting on agreement terms, based on official briefings or leaked documents, may satisfy the "widely available" threshold without requiring formal government publication. The State Department's historical pattern of releasing diplomatic texts through official channels and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee website provides a concrete mechanism for resolution. Any delay beyond the signing ceremony to accommodate ratification procedures could push disclosure beyond the settlement window, though the current probability suggests traders assess public release as the more probable outcome.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.