Who will attend US-Iran signing ceremony?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement on 14 June 2026, with a signing ceremony scheduled for 19 June. The market resolves positively if a specified individual attends any official signing event between the two nations by 7 July 2026. The 41% implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty about attendance at what would represent a significant diplomatic milestone, given the fraught history of US-Iran relations and the compressed timeline between announcement and execution.

Historical precedent suggests high-level attendance at major bilateral agreements typically occurs when both parties view the accord as strategically important. The Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) signing in 2015 saw participation from foreign ministers and senior officials, though the US Secretary of State did not attend the formal signing in Vienna. More recently, the Abraham Accords signings in 2020 featured prominent American representation, including the US Special Envoy. The current 41% probability implies traders assess meaningful risk that either diplomatic sensitivities, domestic political constraints, or last-minute complications could prevent the individual's attendance.

Key variables to monitor include official statements from the US State Department and Iranian Foreign Ministry regarding attendee lists, any scheduling conflicts or ceremonial format changes announced before 19 June, and broader geopolitical developments that might affect the agreement's stability. The compressed three-week window between announcement and resolution means traders should watch for confirmatory statements from either government naming specific representatives, as such announcements typically emerge within days of a scheduled signing ceremony.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.