Highest temperature in NYC on June 9?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

LaGuardia Airport will record its highest temperature on 9 June 2026, with settlement determined by Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific date. The market resolves to whichever temperature range captures the peak reading across all hours of that day in Fahrenheit.

New York City's June weather typically ranges from 75°F to 85°F as daily highs, though heat waves can push readings into the low 90s. Historical data from recent Junes shows LaGuardia recording highs between 78°F and 88°F in most years, with occasional outliers reaching 92°F during Atlantic heat domes. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation that the temperature will fall outside the highest available range option—a positioning that reflects either extreme confidence in a cooler-than-normal day or uncertainty about the exact range brackets offered.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather patterns and any developing Atlantic systems in late May and early June 2026. The National Weather Service's extended forecasts, typically issued 10–14 days before the settlement date, will provide the first reliable signal of whether high-pressure systems or tropical moisture will influence conditions over the New York region. Urban heat island effects at LaGuardia itself—a concrete-heavy airport environment—tend to produce readings 2–3°F higher than surrounding areas, a factor worth considering when evaluating range probabilities against broader regional forecasts.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 9? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.