Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Islamic Republic of Iran's ruling structures—the Supreme Leader's office, the Guardian Council, and the Revolutionary Guards Corps under clerical command—would need to be dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system for this market to resolve Yes by May 2026. The 0% crowd probability reflects the institutional entrenchment of Iran's theocratic system and the absence of imminent, credible indicators of regime collapse within the 18-month window.

Historical precedent for rapid regime change in Iran is limited. The 1979 revolution took months to unfold amid widespread strikes, military defection, and popular mobilisation that overwhelmed the Shah's security apparatus. More recent colour revolutions in post-Soviet states (Georgia 2003, Ukraine 2004) succeeded through electoral disputes and security force fractures, yet Iran's IRGC remains cohesive and controls significant economic assets. The 2009 Green Movement and 2019–2022 protest cycles failed to dislodge core power structures, suggesting high institutional resilience.

Traders monitoring this market should track indicators of IRGC fracture, mass defection among security forces, or catalytic external shocks—though none are currently evident. Scheduled events include Iran's 2025 parliamentary elections and any escalation in regional conflict involving Israel or the United States, which could destabilise governance. Economic collapse, currency crises, or sudden loss of oil revenue could theoretically accelerate instability, but would require compounding failures across multiple systems within 18 months. Current reporting shows no consensus among analysts anticipating regime dissolution by May 2026.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.