Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 27?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest daily temperature in Celsius on 27 May 2026, with settlement determined by the official "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in their Daily Extract database. Late May sits within Hong Kong's pre-monsoon period, typically characterised by warm, humid conditions ahead of the summer peak. Historical data from the Observatory shows May temperatures in the territory range considerably—absolute daily maxima have reached 34–36°C in recent years, though cooler days around 28–30°C occur when maritime air masses dominate.

The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting resolution data or treating this as a calibration market pending finalisation. May weather in Hong Kong depends heavily on the position of the subtropical high-pressure system and any early tropical disturbances. The Observatory publishes daily extracts with a lag; traders should monitor their climate data portal from late May onwards, as the settlement window closes 27 May at 12:00 UTC, creating a tight window for data confirmation. Recent years' May patterns show variability—2024 saw mid-range temperatures typical of the season, whilst anomalously warm or cool episodes can shift outcomes significantly depending on synoptic patterns in the preceding weeks.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 27? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.