Internet Access restored in Iran by 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Iran's nationwide internet shutdown commenced on 28 February 2026 during escalating military confrontation involving the United States and Israel. The blackout has persisted across fixed-line and mobile networks, with authorities citing security concerns. This market settles affirmatively only if credible international reporting establishes broad, unambiguous restoration of general internet connectivity by 30 April 2026—a window of roughly two months from the outset.

Previous Iranian internet disruptions offer limited precedent for rapid restoration during active conflict. The 2019 shutdown lasted approximately one week amid domestic unrest, whilst the 2022 protests saw intermittent connectivity rather than total blackout. However, those instances occurred absent direct military engagement with foreign powers. Full-scale wartime internet cuts typically persist until ceasefire agreements materialise or military objectives shift; Syria's fragmented connectivity during its civil war remained compromised for years despite periodic localised restoration. The 0% crowd probability reflects scepticism that diplomatic resolution or military de-escalation occurs within the settlement window.

Traders should monitor ceasefire negotiations, any US-Israel-Iran diplomatic channels, and statements from Iran's telecommunications authority regarding infrastructure damage assessment. International sanctions relief discussions or UN Security Council activity could signal shifting conditions. Recent reporting from Reuters and AP News indicates infrastructure damage assessments are ongoing, though no restoration timeline has been publicly announced. Military developments—particularly whether active hostilities continue or pause—represent the primary catalyst determining whether conditions favour reconnection before month-end April.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.